Αξιολόγηση της Αναπαράστασης του Ελληνικού Ενεργειακού Συστήματος σε Μοντέλο Ολοκληρωμένης Αποτίμησης με Αναφορά στο Εθνικό Σχέδιο για την Ενέργεια και το Κλίμα για την Ανάδειξη Αναγκών Περαιτέρω Βαθμονόμησης του Μοντέλου

Abstract

The transition towards climate neutrality requires a profound transformation of energy systems. However, similar emission reductions can be achieved through different combinations of technologies, energy resources and policy measures, leading to different infrastructure needs and energy system compositions. At the same time, pathways generated by energy models are influenced by their geographical scale, structure and assumptions. Their assessment cannot therefore be limited to emissions, but must also consider the structure of the transition and the model used. The purpose of this thesis is to compare the estimates presented in the revised National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for 2025–2050 with results for Greece produced by GCAM-Europe, an integrated assessment model representing all European Union member states, under a scenario implementing the high-level emission reduction targets of national NECPs. Given that similar emission reductions are achieved in the two scenarios through different combinations of technologies and resources, the aim is to identify key points of convergence and divergence and examine the role of energy resources and technologies. Using harmonised categories and units of measurement, the analysis covers CO₂ emissions, final and primary energy consumption by carrier and sector, electricity generation and hydrogen production. The findings show that, for comparable levels of emission reduction, the NECP places greater emphasis on electrification and renewable energy: in 2050, electricity accounts for approximately 59% of final energy consumption, compared with 43% in GCAM-Europe, while renewable shares in electricity generation reach 97.4% and 73.2%, respectively. In GCAM-Europe, non-electric energy carriers, biomass and CO₂ capture and storage technologies play a greater role in the pathway produced by the model. With the NECP serving as a national reference, the comparison contributes to assessing GCAM-Europe, highlighting additional, more specific assumptions and aspects of the representation of the Greek energy system that require further investigation. The findings provide a basis for future improvements in model calibration and application in national analyses.